A new housing market era emerges in 2026. We pair Compass's national outlook with Coast's on-the-ground read of Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Westchester — so you know exactly where the market is before you buy, sell, or build.
Official page · compass.com/research/market-outlookAnticipated national growth in available homes, expanding buyer options and affordability potential.
A modest increase while incomes grow faster — supporting improved affordability conditions.
Forecast range for the year, averaging approximately 6.4%.
Projected units, about 5% above 2025.
Source: Compass Intelligence, 2026 Housing Market Outlook; Altos Research; U.S. Census. Estimates for 2025–2026.
2026 marks a transition toward normal market conditions after four years of pandemic-driven volatility — frozen migration patterns, unstable mortgage rates, affordability pressures, and uneven regional supply.
Incomes are expected to grow faster than home prices in 2026, easing the price-to-income pressure that has sidelined buyers since 2022.
Homeowners locked in by low rates have stayed put for years. As rates settle and inventory rises, mobility slowly returns — more listings, more moves.
Days on market vary sharply by state and metro. Tight, well-priced markets still move in days; oversupplied ones give buyers leverage and time to negotiate.
Regional housing gaps widen as job growth, wealth creation, and migration concentrate in some metros and drain from others.
By November 2025 nearly 60% of listings had been withdrawn — roughly 150,000 additional homeowners waiting to sell when conditions improve. Meanwhile purchase-mortgage applications rose 15–25% year over year while sales rose only 2–4%: demand waiting for the right moment.
“The market is shifting toward a new era where incomes rise faster than home prices and the deep freeze of the last few years begins to thaw. After years of delay, anyone looking to make a move should finally see greater opportunities to take the leap.”
Incomes are expected to grow faster than home prices in 2026, easing affordability pressures for the first time in years (Compass, Altos Research, U.S. Census; 2025–2026 estimates).
Regional variation is wide — as of November 2025 some states' homes sold in days while others gave buyers weeks of leverage (Altos Research, Compass).
By November 2025 nearly 60% of listings had been withdrawn, pointing to roughly 150,000 additional homeowners ready to sell when conditions improve.
Purchase-mortgage applications rose 15–25% year over year while sales rose only 2–4% — demand that exceeds closed transactions and is waiting for its moment.
Tell us where you're buying, selling, or building and we'll send the outlook with Coast's read on your neighborhood — plus Compass Intelligence updates as they publish.
Median and average sale prices, price-per-square-foot by neighborhood and property type, and how they're trending quarter over quarter.
Active listings, months of supply, and the new-development pipeline — the balance between what's for sale and who's buying.
How fast homes are trading, negotiability off ask, and absorption rates that tell you whether it's a buyer's or seller's market.
Buyer activity, mortgage-rate context, and the seasonal rhythms that move Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Westchester differently.
Block-level comparables and co-op vs. condo dynamics — the granular read that a citywide headline number always misses.
What's launching, selling out, and repricing across the boroughs — essential for developers and early buyers alike.
Neighborhood pricing, inventory, and trend reports for Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Westchester — delivered straight to your inbox.
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